As of Wednesday, there are 50 days remaining until the NFL season kicks off on Sept. 8. We’ve survived over five months without football, and less than two months remain before it’s back in our lives. It’s officially football preparation season.
Season win totals have been posted at BetMGM since April, and they’ve received plenty of action over the past three-and-a-half months. Surely, even more action will come in over the next 7 weeks ahead of kickoff. Which teams are getting love in the betting market, and which teams are catching the fade?
Dallas is a popular under bet
Last season, the Dallas Cowboys went 12-5 en route to winning the NFC East. Overall, they finished the regular season with the third-best record in the NFC and the fifth-best record in football. Things didn’t go well in the playoffs, but there’s no denying it was a regular successful season for Dallas.
The playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers exposed some warts that we always knew were there. Discipline was a serious issue, and coaching often gets a lot of blame for that. The last play of the game was botched to epic proportions, again, a combination of failing to execute and poor coaching. Dak Prescott had a subpar game. Entering his seventh NFL season, he’s still straddling the line between “very good” and “elite.” It’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever fully take that step.
The offseason wasn’t great to the Cowboys either. As a result of paying Prescott and aging running back Ezekiel Elliott, they had to make some tough decisions this past winter. They traded No. 1 wide receiver Amari Cooper to Cleveland for pennies on the dollar. They lost La’El Collins, Randy Gregory, Connor Williams and more.
Cooper is in Cleveland, versatile weapon Cedrick Wilson signed with Miami and Michael Gallup will likely miss the start of the season due to ACL surgery rehab. Last year’s offense was explosive for Dallas, but Prescott will need to rely on Ceedee Lamb, James Washington and Jalen Tolbert as his receiving options. On paper, it’s a significant downgrade.
Dallas’ win total for this upcoming season is set at 10.5 wins, and bettors aren’t expecting the Cowboys to reach that mark. Currently at BetMGM, 84% of bets and 91% of the betting handle is backing Dallas to go under 10.5 wins. They are the second-most popular under bet of all 32 teams.
The NFC East has improved around Dallas. The Eagles might be one of the league’s most improved teams from the offseason. The Commanders upgraded at quarterback, and there’s reason to believe their defense will be improved with Chase Young back. The Giants upgraded just by firing Joe Judge, and there’s high hopes for Brian Daboll, who is co-favorite to win the coach of the year award. Everything went right for Dallas last season, but bettors aren’t expecting that to happen again this season.
Other popular under bets
While the Cowboys are getting a lot of action, they aren’t getting the most betting action on the under for their season win total. That honor belongs to the Chicago Bears.
After winning six games in 2021, the Bears’ win total for 2022 opened at 6.5 wins. That seems like a fair number, as a one-win jump for a second-year starting quarterback should be the least that’s expected. However, pettors disagree. 80% of bets and 90% of the money is backing Chicago to go under 6.5 wins, and no team has received more under action in terms of betting handle.
Detractors for the Bears will likely point to the lack of weapons surrounding Justin Fields. Darnell Mooney is talented, and there’s hope he can take a step forward, but it’s really hard to consider him a No. 1 wide receiver on an NFL team. Behind Mooney, the Bears will be relying on the likes of former Chiefs depth option Byron Pringle, former Patriots first-round bust N’Keal Harry and 25-year old rookie Velus Jones Jr.
The third-most popular under bet is the Steelers to go under 7.5 wins. Famously, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as coach of the Steelers, but bettors believe that will change this season. Yahoo Sportsbook’s Mark Drumheller dove into why fading Pittsburgh this season might be a good idea.
Here are some other teams getting action on their season win total unders:
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Arizona: 62% of bets, 94% of money on under 8.5 wins
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Houston: 53% of bets, 62% of money on under 4.5 wins
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Jacksonville: 66% of bets, 84% of money on under 6.5 wins
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Kansas City: 60% of bets, 53% of money on under 10.5 wins
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Tampa Bay: 60% of bets, 58% of money on under 11.5 wins
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Tennessee: 55% of bets, 79% of money on under 9.5 wins
Which teams do bettors like?
Which teams are bettors highest on heading into the season? Well, that would be the Detroit Lions of course.
Despite winning just three games last season, the most popular over bet ahead of NFL training camps is the Detroit Lions to go over 6.5 wins. A four-win improvement would be massive and is pretty rare, but bettors are siding with Detroit to get there. Currently, 94% of bets and 95% of the money is on Detroit to go over 6.5 wins.
Detroit certainly improved as last season went on. The Lions lost plenty of close games and heartbreakers early on. After opening the season 0-10-1, there were talks about whether the Lions would go winless. However, Detroit went 3-3 over their final six games to give their fans and bettors hope heading into this season.
Detroit drafted Aidan Hutchinson and Jameson Williams amongst others and added the likes of DJ Chark, Mike Hughes and DeShon Elliott in free agency. It seems like the football world is high on head coach Dan Campbell, who enters the season as a 12-to-1 co-favorite to win coach of the year. Will Detroit put it all together this season, go over 6.5 wins and find themselves playing meaningful games down the stretch?
Here are some other teams getting love in the season win total market:
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Baltimore: 90% of bets, 95% of money on over 9.5 wins
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Buffalo: 80% of bets, 88% of money on over 11.5 wins
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Carolina: 69% of bets, 86% of money on over 6.5 wins
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Cincinnati: 76% of bets, 70% of money on over 9.5 wins
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Indianapolis: 93% of bets, 98% of money on over 9.5 wins
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Las Vegas: 86% of bets, 75% of money on over 8.5 wins
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LA Chargers: 81% of bets, 54% of money on over 10.5 wins
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LA Rams: 96% of bets, 85% of money on over 10.5 wins
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Miami: 76% of bets, 91% of money on over 8.5 wins
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Minnesota: 94% of bets, 95% of money on over 8.5 wins
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New Orleans: 86% of bets, 89% of money on over 8.5 wins
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NY Jets: 78% of bets, 86% of money on over 5.5 wins
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Philadelphia: 90% of bets, 96% of money on over 9.5 wins